Comparison exercise of probabilistic precursor analysis
V. Fauchille, S. Babst,
Forum Eurosafe, Berlin, 8-9 novembre 2004,
Rapport DSR 40
From 2000 up to 2003, a comparison exercise concerning accident precursor programs was performed by IRSN, GRS, and NUPEC (Japan). The objective of this exercise was to compare the methodologies used to quantify conditional core damage probability related to incidents which can be considered as accident precursors. This exercise provided interesting results concerning the interpretation of such events. Generally, the participants identified similar scenarios of potential degradation. However, for several dominant sequences, differences in the results were noticed. The differences can be attributed to variations in the plant design, the strategy of management and in the methodological approach. For many reasons, comparison of human reliability analysis was difficult and perhaps another exercise in the future could provide more information about this subject. On the other hand, interesting outcomes have been obtained from the quantification of both common cause failures and potential common cause failures.