Uncertainty analysis in post-accidental risk assessment models: An application to the Fukushima accident

​Annals of Nuclear Energy / Volume 93, juillet 2016, pages 94-106

​Environmental contamination subsequent to the atmospheric releases during the Fukushima accident resulted in high radioactive concentrations in feed and foodstuffs. Producing a realistic health risk assessment after severe nuclear accidents, and developing a sufficient understanding of environmental transfer and exposure processes, appears to be a research priority. Specifically, the characterization of uncertainties in the human ingestion pathway, as outlined by the radioecological community, is of great interest. The present work aims to (i) characterize spatial variability and parametric uncertainties raised by the processes involved in the transfer of radionuclides (¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs) after atmospheric releases during the Fukushima accident into the terrestrial ecosystems, and (ii) study the impact of these variability and uncertainties on radioactive contamination of leafy vegetables. The implemented approach quantified uncertainties under a probabilistic modelling framework. This resulted in probability distributions derived mainly from Bayesian inference and by performing transfer calculations in the modelling platform SYMBIOSE.