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References: ENV21-12

Themes: Geological Sciences, Earth, Universe

Thesis location: Hydrogeology, Flood and Geotechnical Risk Assessment Section (BEHRIG) - Fontenay-aux-Roses (92)

Start: October 2021

Skills required

Master's Degree in Statistics

Age limit: 26 years old unless otherwise stated.

Thesis subject

So far, the characterisation of meteorological hazards (temperature, rain, wind) is based on theory of extreme values applied to a variable characteristic of the hazard. Series of local observations, extracted at stations representative of the sites of interest, are often used. The physics of the phenomena and the combined effects of the meteorological parameters causing these extreme events are not considered as such. The use of the modelling tools available on a fine scale should make it possible to fill the lack of information related to the observations, to have a greater spatial representativeness and to take into account the physics of the phenomena. Thus, alternative methodologies such as classification by time regime, for example, could be retained in order to identify plausible combinations of hazards for each time regime. The use of models could also be used to identify the worst possible physical combinations by disturbing the input parameters and by running simulation games. Thus, the general objective of the thesis could be to offer a more exhaustive vision of the meteorological phenomena that could generate extreme events and would seek to define the worst plausible meteorological situations in metropolitan France, by integrating the problem of the accumulation of hazards. Finally, in the current climatic context, the thesis will examine the probability of these extreme situations in past, present and future climates, and the trends identified by the models will be studied.